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Nonlinear Dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Virus
Published in Jyoti Mishra, Ritu Agarwal, Abdon Atangana, Mathematical Modeling and Soft Computing in Epidemiology, 2020
Aditya Mani Mishra, Ritu Agarwal, Sunil Dutt Purohit, Kamlesh Jangid
There are some important assumptions that we need to remember when dealing with this model: First, the model is deterministic. This means that, eventually, everyone gets the disease and goes through recovery.Second, it is short term. For COVID-19 disease, this incubation period is 14 days. The population is constant, and there are no births or deaths. In particular, there are no deaths caused by the disease.Third, it assumes a random mixing. In other words, we are assuming that people behave like air particles and can be expected to contact people far away.
IoT-Based Smart Mask to Combat COVID-19
Published in Thiruselvan Subramanian, Archana Dhyani, Adarsh Kumar, Sukhpal Singh Gill, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Blockchain in Quantum Satellite, Drone and Network, 2023
Harveen Kaur, Harpreet Kaur, Navjot Kaur
Though the symptoms of COVID-19 (i.e. fever, common cold, cough and fatigue) are general, yet they can prove to be deadly if not properly diagnosed at an early stage. The incubation period of COVID-19 is of around 14 days. An asymptotic patient who is in his incubation period is not aware of the COVID virus residing inside his body can be the transmitter of COVID-19 virus and this nature of the virus has hit the healthcare system so badly; because if the patient is not quarantined in his early stage of incubation, then he can form a chain and this endless chain is the reason why the world is facing the second wave of COVID-19 [10,19].
Intermediate Numerical Integration
Published in Harold Klee, Randal Allen, Simulation of Dynamic Systems with MATLAB® and Simulink®, 2018
The formulation of a mathematical model in the field of epidemiology requires some basic information about disease and how it spreads among a population. To start with, symptoms of the disease may not appear at the time a host is infected, rather an incubation period may be necessary prior to appearance of the symptoms. A host infected with a pathogen may become infectious only after a period of latency. The infectious period is the duration of time during which the host is capable of transmitting the disease to others in the population. The incubation, latent, and infectious periods depend on the pathology of the disease.
Forecasting the impact of epidemic outbreaks on the supply chain: modelling asymptomatic cases of the COVID-19 pandemic
Published in International Journal of Production Research, 2023
Pradeep K. Jha, Suvadip Ghorai, Rakhi Jha, Rajul Datt, Gowrishankar Sulapu, Surya Prakash Singh
The present study estimated the stability of equilibrium on the basis of A = 3, = 1/ (70*365), = 0.25, = 0.75, = 0.05, = 0.3, = 0.03, b = 1/5, and = 1/14 using MATLAB software (Figures 8 and 9). These parameters satisfy real-life observations. In general, the life expectancy of humans is 70 years. After transmission of COVID-19 to a person, the probability that this human becomes symptomatic is assumed to be 25% and of becoming the asymptomatic is assumed to be 75%. The median incubation period of COVID-19 infection in human equals to 5–6 days. Transmission of COVID-19 cases to the quarantined human takes 5 days. The duration of recovery measures approximately 14 days, and the other parameters are arbitrarily chosen (WHO 2020).
A Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Support Tool for Epidemic Control: Validation Study for COVID-19
Published in Applied Artificial Intelligence, 2022
Mohamed-Amine Chadi, Hajar Mousannif
The identification rate (s2): Here, we hypothesize that besides the role of the testing rate as explored in point (3), the incubation period and the severity of the symptoms also affect the identification of carriers. The longer the incubation period and the less severe are the symptoms, the less identifiable a disease becomes. COVID-19, for instance, has an incubation period that varies between 6.5 and 12.5 days (Quesada et al. 2021), often followed by moderate to no symptoms, as opposed to Ebola, for example, whose incubation period is around 12.7 days (Martin, Dowell, and Firese 2011) followed by the severe manifestation of symptoms. This is among the main reasons COVID-19 has spread much more than other epidemics (the lack of symptoms for a longer period). Therefore, the equation for S2 is:
Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control
Published in International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 2022
Shunxiang Huang, Jing Li, Chengguqiu Dai, Zihan Tie, Jiazhao Xu, Xiang Xiong, Xingjie Hao, Zhongyi Wang, Chan Lu
Incubation period is a key parameter in the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases. It is defined as the time interval from the pathogen invading the body to the earliest symptom onset. It is affected by multiple factors such as pathogen characteristics and individual immune performance. Clarifying the distribution of incubation period of infectious diseases is of great significance to determine the quarantine time, develop prevention and control measures, and predict epidemic trends (Wang et al. 2020). Compared with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), of which the infected cases generally become infectious after symptoms onset (Zeng et al. 2009)(Lipsitch et al. 2003), the hiddenness and high contagiousness of COVID-19 make it more necessary to investigate the incubation period distribution rules (Hao et al. 2020). What kind of distribution does the incubation period of COVID-19 fit into? How long is it?