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Comparative Forecasts of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Botswana Using Box-Jenkin's ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing State-Space Models
Published in Amit Kumar Tyagi, Ajith Abraham, Recurrent Neural Networks, 2023
Ofaletse Mphale, V. Lakshmi Narasimhan
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi, which are transmitted between individuals or from an animal [30]. Zoonotic diseases are groups of infectious diseases that affect animals but can cause diseases when transmitted to humans [5]. Studies had shown that to date, various models and tools had been developed to predict and forecast the plagues of infectious diseases. The most popular are ARIMA models [16, 26, 31, 32], SIR models [28, 31], ETS models [26, 33], artificial intelligence [26, 27], and many others. [33]) compared different forecasting methods such as Holt linear trend method, naive method, single exponential smoothing, simple average, Holt-Winters method, moving average, and ARIMA using root mean square error score. From their findings it was deduced that the naïve model outperformed all other models. However, based on the ARIMA model, the grid search method yielded the best fit model for the series data.
Harnessing Indigenous Bioresources for Development of Diagnostics for Detection and Confirmation of Infectious Agents in Nigeria
Published in Hajiya Mairo Inuwa, Ifeoma Maureen Ezeonu, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Emmanuel Olufemi Ekundayo, Abubakar Gidado, Abdulrazak B. Ibrahim, Benjamin Ewa Ubi, Medical Biotechnology, Biopharmaceutics, Forensic Science and Bioinformatics, 2022
E. O. Ekundayo, J. C. Igwe, Ifeoma M. Ezeonu
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses in humans and animals. Infectious diseases are otherwise called communicable diseases because they can spread from one person to another, either directly or indirectly, with possibility of causing epidemics and pandemics. Infectious diseases in animals which can be spread to humans are called zoonotic diseases. In the past and as in the present, infectious agents have always posed serious threat to public health and human well-being. Infectious agents like human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) causing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the corona viruses (CoV) responsible for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) such as COVID-19 are the causes of global devastating pandemics for which cures have not been found (WHO, 2020). Apart from the pandemics which are often associated with high morbidity and mortality, other infectious diseases like malaria, tuberculosis (TB), viral hepatitis, drug-resistant bacterial infections, newly emerging viral infections like Ebola, Lassa fever and Zika viruses are posing significant threats to health in different parts of the world. Infectious diseases are responsible for over 17 million deaths annually (WHO, 2020).
Environment-Related Infectious Diseases
Published in Barry L. Johnson, Maureen Y. Lichtveld, Environmental Policy and Public Health, 2017
Barry L. Johnson, Maureen Y. Lichtveld
Zoonotic diseases are caused by a pathogen that is transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans. The vertebrate animal is the pathogen’s “reservoir host” or “intermediate host” in which it can multiply and develop when there is no active transmission to humans. The CDC has adopted the One Health approach presented during the 2012 Global Risk Forum One Health Summit [24]. One Health recognizes the interdependence of human health and that of animals and the environment [25]. Even though the concept of multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder public health cooperation to manage public health threats, food safety, and food security are not new, three global causes have advanced the One Health strategy: (1) over the past 50 years, human populations have grown exponentially and expanded into new habitats, (2) land use practices, such as deforestation and farming, combined with climate change, have disrupted habitat conditions allowing for new human-animal interactions, and (3) the increase of international travel due to globalization allows infectious diseases to quickly spread across the globe [26]. Therefore, public health surveillance, public education on how to handle animals and pets, and treatment and vaccination research are essential to prevent the transmission and control zoonotic diseases.
Prevalence of Bovine Leukemia Virus (BLV) and Bovine Adenovirus (BAdV) genomes among air and surface samples in dairy production
Published in Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, 2020
Agata Stobnicka-Kupiec, Małgorzata Gołofit-Szymczak, Rafał L. Górny, Marcin Cyprowski
Zoonotic diseases are serious health outcomes caused by spread of germs between animals and people. Over the last 30 years infectious diseases have been recognized as one of the most significant public health problems, mainly due to the emergence of novel viral zoonotic diseases (Wang and Crameri 2014). Zoonotic pathogens can substantially impact public health both in terms of disease morbidity and in socioeconomic factors such as livestock productivity (McDaniel et al. 2014). According to available data, higher probability of zoonotic disease transmission occurs in case of domestic animals than in wildlife. Thus, it is important to focus research effort on their precise recognition (Morand et al. 2014; Warren and Sawyer 2019). It is worth to remember that RNA viruses usually pose higher zoonotic risk than DNA viruses, as they can emerge and spread very rapidly. The ability of RNA viruses to replicate in the cytoplasm (without nuclear entry) is the strongest single predictor of cross-species transmission, including probably human infections (Pulliam and Dushoff 2009; Tomley and Shirley 2009). Nevertheless, DNA viruses (e.g., Adenoviridae) may also be a risk factor for zoonoses and are suspected of being transmissible between humans and other mammals (Ghebremedhin 2014; Phan et al. 2006; Woolhouse et al. 2016).