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Global Climate Change: Earth System Response
Published in Brian D. Fath, Sven E. Jørgensen, Megan Cole, Managing Air Quality and Energy Systems, 2020
Amanda Staudt, Nathan E. Hultman
Factors that affect climate change are usefully separated into forcings and feedbacks. Climate forcings are energy imbalances imposed on the climate system either externally or by human activities.[5] Examples include human- caused emissions of greenhouse gases, as discussed in the preceding section, as well as changes in solar energy input; volcanic emissions; deliberate land modification; or anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, which can absorb and scatter radiation. Climate forcings can be either direct or indirect. Direct radiative forcings are simple changes to the drivers of Earth’s radiative balance. For example, added CO2 absorbs and emits infrared radiation. Indirect radiative forcings create a radiative imbalance by first altering climate system components that lead to consequent changes in radiative fluxes; an example is the effect of aerosols on the precipitation efficiency of clouds. Figure 3 provides a summary of the estimated contribution from major climate forcings. Additional information about specific climate forcings is provided in the discussion below.
Environmental impacts and mitigation
Published in Lucy Budd, Stephen Ison, Air Transport Management, 2020
Kerosene is the primary fuel source for aircraft. When burnt in aircraft engines, carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour (H2O), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulates (PMs), and other pollutants are produced (Box 18.1). The majority of these emissions are released at high altitudes (typically 30,000–39,000 ft), where their impact on the climate is greater than if they were released at sea level. CO2, water vapour, and NOX are greenhouse gases (GHG) which contribute to global heating and climate change by absorbing infrared radiation from the sun and warming the planet. Their impacts are assessed using a metric called radiative forcing (RF), which is measured in Watts per square metre (W/m2). RF measures the influence a particular pollutant has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the atmosphere. RF can either be positive (leading to atmospheric warming) or negative (leading to atmospheric cooling). Given the growth in the air traffic and aviation’s contribution to rising GHG emissions, managing, and reducing, aircraft emissions is a key goal that the air transport industry is seeking to address through the development of new technology (including more sustainable fuels), enhanced operating procedures and the introduction of a global market-based measure (Section 18.4).
Buildings and Climate Change
Published in Pablo La Roche, Carbon-Neutral Architectural Design, 2017
Total radiative forcing is positive and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing has been caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 (IPCC, 2014). It is also clear that temperatures are affected by GHG levels and that global mean surface temperatures will rise as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions (Figure 1.9) (IPCC, 2014). Multimodel results from a hierarchy of climate carbon cycle models for each Representive Concentration on Pathways (RCP) until 2100 are shown with colored lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860–2010) are indicated in black. The colored plume illustrates the multimodel spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multimodel mean and range simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% per year CO2 simulations), are given by the thin black line and gray area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcing. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period and emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines (IPCC, 2014).
A review of the potential impacts of climate change on the safety and performance of bridges
Published in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2021
Amro Nasr, I. Björnsson, D. Honfi, O. Larsson Ivanov, J. Johansson, E. Kjellström
Numerous climate change scenarios have been defined in literature. However, in its fifth, and most recent, Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) refers to four different scenarios, RCP 2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6), RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[IPCC], 2013; and IPCC, 2014). The number identifying each scenario represents the approximate Radiative Forcing (RF), in W/m2, either at the year 2100, or at stabilization afterward, in comparison to the year 1750; representing the preindustrial levels. Radiative forcing is a measure of the change in energy flux per surface area. Surface warming is a result of positive radiative forcing while negative radiative forcing results in surface cooling (IPCC, 2013).
Spatial and temporal variation of daytime and nighttime MODIS land surface temperature across Nepal
Published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2019
Nirajan LUINTEL, Weiqiang MA, Yaoming MA, Binbin WANG, Sunil SUBBA
LST is the product of the interaction of climatic and environmental components with the land surface, apparently influenced by atmospheric and land processes. Changes in LST are attributable to one of these factors or their combined effects. Generally, the LST trend across Nepal is in agreement with the global warming phenomenon. Global warming is indisputably attributable to an enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC 2013), which has increased quickly over the last two decades (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_full.html). The enhanced greenhouse effect promotes positive radiative forcing, which subsequently increases the radiative temperature of the earth surface, i.e., the LST. This effect of radiative forcing is elevated during the high insolation period of the summer (Khorchani et al. 2018).
Hazard-based regional loss estimation considering hurricane intensity, size and sea surface temperature change
Published in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2018
Climate change projections in the form of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). The RCPs are projections of the radiative forcing in the year 2100 and have served as input for climate and atmospheric modeling studies and assisted climate modelers in developing their own projections and scenarios. Four such RCP’s, increasing in severity, are referred to as RCP 3-PD, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. For our study, we consider only the worst-case scenario having the most dramatic radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), a radiative forcing level of 8.5 watt/m2 in the year 2100. By comparison, the 2005 radiative forcing level, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007), was 1.6 watt/m2. The projected monthly average SST values in the year 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario were developed by scientists at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR, personal communication) using the Community Earth System Model (NCAR CESM, 2012). The difference between the actual SST in August 2005 and the projected SST in August 2100 (the most active month for hurricanes) is shown in Figure 7.