China
Africa
Explore chapters and articles related to this topic
Effectiveness of adaptation options for multi-purpose reservoir operation to climate change
Published in Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu, Elpida Kolokytha, Carlos de Oliveira Galvão, Climate Change-Sensitive Water Resources Management, 2020
Daisuke Nohara, Yoshinobu Sato, Tetsuya Sumi
The projections of climate experiments by MRI-AGCM3.2S were employed as meteorological data. The AGCM has a horizontal resolution of triangular truncation 959 (T959), and the transform grid uses 1920 × 960 grid cells, which approximately correspond to a 20 km grid interval with 64 vertical layers. Two climate projections are available from this AGCM: current climate projection (1979–2003) and future climate projection (2075–2099). Both were used as meteorological input to the rainfall–runoff model used for the assessment in this case study. The RCP8.5 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was considered for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the future climate experiment used in this case study. Precipitation, rainfall, snowmelt water amount, and evapotranspiration were derived from the projections by the AGCM as meteorological input variables for the assessment.
Hazard-based hurricane loss estimation including climate change impacts
Published in Paolo Gardoni, Routledge Handbook of Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2018
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) (IPCC 2014) provides climate change projections in the form of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. The RCPs are projections of the radiative forcing in the year 2100 and have served as input for climate and atmospheric modeling studies and assisted climate modelers in developing their own projections and scenarios. Four such RCPs, increasing in severity, are referred to as RCP 3-PD, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. For our study, we consider only the worst-case scenario having the most dramatic radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), a radiative forcing level of 8.5 watt/m2 in the year 2100. By comparison, the 2005 radiative forcing level, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), was 1.6 watt/m2. The projected monthly average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values in the year 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario were developed by scientists at the National Center of Atmospheric Research using the Community Earth System Model. The difference between the actual SST in August 2005 and the projected SST in August 2100 (historically the most active month for hurricanes in the US) is shown in Figure 33.4.
Reliability based corrosion damage assessment for concrete bridge decks under a changing climate
Published in Nigel Powers, Dan M. Frangopol, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Colin Caprani, Maintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges, 2018
In this paper, two emission scenarios are considered, i.e. RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 which represent high and medium greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. RC bridge decks in an Australian city Sydney and a Chinese city Kunming are chosen as a case study to include the effects of construction methods, climate conditions and design specifications. The spatial time-dependent reliability analysis includes the time-dependent climate scenarios and deterioration processes, as well as a large number of random variables and spatial random fields of material properties and dimensions. The surface of concrete structures is discretized into many elements and the likelihood and extent of corrosion damage is calculated by tracking the evolution of the corrosion process of each element using Monte Carlo simulation. Climate adaptation and/or maintenance strategies based on the analysis could provide insights into this problem for policy makers and society (e.g., Stewart & Deng 2015).
Quantifying the distribution and potential biotic interactions between deer and flora using species distribution modelling
Published in Annals of GIS, 2023
J. O’Mahony, A. Vanmechelen, P. Holloway
In this study, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were selected to model the future distributions of four deer species and the 13 endangered/vulnerable plant species in the years 2050 (average predicted conditions of 2041–2060). RCP 4.5 is an ‘intermediate’ scenario with an emissions peak around 2040 and a steady decline thereafter. RCP 8.5 is the basis for the ‘worst-case’ scenario were emissions to continue to increase until 2100 (Meinshausen et al. 2011). We opted to assume that land cover will remain consistent in the future, which is most likely a simplification of reality. While there have been recent global products of future land use, such as ESRI’s Living Atlas Land Use 2050 data, this currently is not projecting in our opinion realistic covers. For example, the product predicts the vast removal of cropland across Ireland, being replaced with grassland, the conversion of Killarney forests into swampland and the conversion of large parts of Dublin into cropland. A recent study by Kang et al. (2022) found that ESRI’s current land cover data had the lowest overall accuracy when land cover was assessed. Therefore, in the absence of a realistic future projection, we feel that the assumption that land cover remains unchanged is justified and is standard practice when future land cover projections are missing in SDM research (e.g. Stanton et al. 2012).
Investigating the impact of climate change on river ice thickness across the Northern Belt of United States
Published in ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2023
Mehmet Akif Nalbant, Suresh Sharma
In this study, daily bias-corrected and constructed climate data were used to predict future daily temperatures from 10 different climate models including canesm2, ccsm4.A, cnrm-cm5, csiro-mk3-6-0, gfdl-esm2m, ipsl-cm5a-lr, miroc-esm, miroc-esm-chem, miroc5, and mpi-esm-lr. All these models were utilized for downscaled Climate Model Intercomparison Project type 5 (CMIP5), which uses Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios while predicting future temperatures. The RCP is a greenhouse concentration trajectory acknowledged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for climate modeling and research. There are four different RCP scenarios used in models. The first one is RCP 2.6, which represents low carbon emission and strong mitigation. The RCP 2.6 is assumed to be peak by 2020 and decline thereafter. Another scenario is RCP 4.5, which represents moderate carbon emission and attains peak by 2040. The third scenario is RCP 6.0, which represents moderate carbon emission and expected to be a peak around 2080 and subsequently decline after attaining peak. The remaining one is RCP 8.5, which expects high carbon emission and continues to rise throughout the century.
Climate change risk and adaptation costs for stormwater management in California coastal parklands
Published in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2023
Erik Porse, Cristina Poindexter, Christian Carleton, Michael Stephens
Historic and future downscaled climate model simulation results were downloaded from both sources. For Cal-Adapt, historic and future gridded (6-km, or 1/16°) daily precipitation data was downloaded. Historic data originated from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Observer Stations and spanned 1950–2006 (Livneh et al., 2013), while data for future scenarios were downloaded for four models spanning 2006–2099. Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were considered. GIS files for identified park boundaries (see discussion in following section) were used to select the appropriate grid cell using the Cal-Adapt website’s interface. Four simulations were used with the justification that selected GCMs would provide a diverse snapshot of future potential conditions: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2, ‘cool/wet’); Earth System Models from the phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CIMP5 (CNRM_CM5, ‘cool/wet’); the Met Office Hadley Center Model from the United Kingdom (HadGEM2-ES, ‘warm/dry’); and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate in Japan (MIROC5, ‘most unlike others’). The data was produced by the Cal-Adapt researchers through a statistical downscaling procedure using a Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) for each model (Pierce et al., 2014).