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A procedure for estimating the risk and resilience of bridge networks under both seismic and tsunami hazards
Published in Hiroshi Yokota, Dan M. Frangopol, Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management, Life-Cycle Sustainability and Innovations, 2021
H. Ishibashi, T. Kojima, M. Akiyama, D.M. Frangopol, S. Koshimura
However, in these previous studies on risk- and resilience-based assessments, the effects of interdependent hazards, such as ground motions and subsequent tsunamis, on structural vulnerability are not considered. In addition, a methodology for risk- and resilience-based assessment that integrates the estimations of hazard intensity and structural vulnerability has not been established. In this research, a procedure is presented for estimating the risk and resilience of bridge networks under both seismic and tsunami hazards. In the proposed framework, risk and resilience are quantified by the economic loss and post-disaster functionality of the road network, respectively. The uncertainties associated with the estimations of fault movement, hazard intensity, and structural vulnerability are considered when estimating the failure probability with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In an illustrative example, bridge networks are analyzed in cities where the effects of the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake would be very intense. It is expected that the damage to structures and the social impacts associated with the recovery process resulting from the ground motions and/or tsunami caused by the Nankai Trough earthquake would be greater than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan 2012a,b and Central Disaster Management Council 2003). Finally, the retrofitting prioritization for road structures is discussed based on quantified risk and resilience.
Life-cycle reliability of bridges under independent and interacting hazards
Published in Nigel Powers, Dan M. Frangopol, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Colin Caprani, Maintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges, 2018
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama, Dan M. Frangopol
It is expected that the damage and the economic loss resulting from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake and its associated tsunami would be larger than those resulting from the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. As an illustrative example, reliabilities, life-cycle cost and recovery time of road networks including bridges and embankments in Town A in Kochi-Prefecture and Town B in Mie-Prefecture under both seismic and tsunami hazards due to the anticipated Nankai trough earthquake are computed. Figure 29 shows the schematic layouts of the investigated network. The parameters associated with the fault movement caused by the anticipated Nankai trough earthquake are determined based on Central Disaster Management Council (2003).
Framework for estimating the risk and resilience of road networks with bridges and embankments under both seismic and tsunami hazards
Published in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2020
Hiroki Ishibashi, Mitsuyoshi Akiyama, Dan M. Frangopol, Shunichi Koshimura, Takayuki Kojima, Kengo Nanami
The next Nankai Trough earthquake is a concern in Japan. The occurrence probability within 30 years of the Nankai Trough earthquake has been estimated to range from 70 to 80% by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2013). It is expected that the damage to structures and the social impacts associated with the recovery process resulting from the ground motions and/or tsunamis caused by the Nankai Trough earthquake would be greater than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, 2012a, 2012b; Central Disaster Management Council, 2003). Considering the damage due to recent large earthquakes and the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, disaster mitigation measures should be implemented based on not only reliability-based indicators that provide the safety level of individual structures but also social impacts, such as the economic loss, degradation of functionality and recovery time of road networks (Akiyama, Frangopol, Arai, & Koshimura, 2013).
Earthquake-related Natech risk assessment using a Bayesian belief network model
Published in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2019
Golam Kabir, Haruki Suda, Ana Maria Cruz, Felipe Munoz Giraldo, Solomon Tesfamariam
For the analysis, the Nankai Trough earthquake is considered as a natural disaster scenario, which will occur with high probability and will cause severe damage. The probability of occurring of a Nankai Trough earthquake is estimated as 70% in the next 30 years (The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, 2016), and the expected onsite PGA at Kobe Higashinada is 5.0 m/s2. The data of the target storage tank and the hazardous material stored were obtained from reports published by the Kobe City Fire Bureau (Hyogo Prefectural Government, Public Works & Development Department, 2016). Figure 6 displays the layout of the industrial plant and storage tanks. The target storage tank (tank E) is marked with red in the layout of Figure 6. Figure 6 also shows the storage tank (E) information. Tank E is a large cylindrical, vertical tank, with a volume of 48,749.52 m3, storing refrigerated LPG at atmospheric pressure with 56% fill level.
Tsunami hazard analysis for Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in the western North Pacific
Published in Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2020
Jingming Hou, Ye Yuan, Tao Li, Zhiyuan Ren
The Nankai Trough is from the Suruga Bay of Shizuoka Prefecture in Japan to the Kyushu Island, with a length of about 700 km and a depth of about 4 km. The trench is located at the junction of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate (Tobin and Kinoshita 2006). The area near the trough is an earthquake-prone region. The focal depth of the earthquake near this Trough is mostly within 30 km.(3)Ryukyu Trench