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Comparative Forecasts of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Botswana Using Box-Jenkin's ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing State-Space Models
Published in Amit Kumar Tyagi, Ajith Abraham, Recurrent Neural Networks, 2023
Ofaletse Mphale, V. Lakshmi Narasimhan
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi, which are transmitted between individuals or from an animal [30]. Zoonotic diseases are groups of infectious diseases that affect animals but can cause diseases when transmitted to humans [5]. Studies had shown that to date, various models and tools had been developed to predict and forecast the plagues of infectious diseases. The most popular are ARIMA models [16, 26, 31, 32], SIR models [28, 31], ETS models [26, 33], artificial intelligence [26, 27], and many others. [33]) compared different forecasting methods such as Holt linear trend method, naive method, single exponential smoothing, simple average, Holt-Winters method, moving average, and ARIMA using root mean square error score. From their findings it was deduced that the naïve model outperformed all other models. However, based on the ARIMA model, the grid search method yielded the best fit model for the series data.
Emergency Department Design in Response to Pandemics
Published in AnnaMarie Bliss, Dak Kopec, Architectural Factors for Infection and Disease Control, 2023
Infectious diseases can be transmitted through the air, large droplets, or direct contact with patients. Prevention of infectious microorganism transmission within ED requires safety measures at the time of patients’ presentation (Siegel et al., 2007). Controlling access is the most effective way to manage patients on arrival. The SLR also revealed the importance of having a dedicated point-of-care testing service in the screening station for identifying infected patients from suspected patients. Screening patients outside the regular ED treatment area can reduce the risk of spreading infection into the main ED. It can be achieved through either outdoor temporary structures or a dedicated fever screening area within ED. The majority of the studies (13 out of 18) included in the SLR relied on temporary structures for screening patients. Most current solutions on triaging (6 out of 8) also focused on using outdoor temporary structures.
Harnessing Indigenous Bioresources for Development of Diagnostics for Detection and Confirmation of Infectious Agents in Nigeria
Published in Hajiya Mairo Inuwa, Ifeoma Maureen Ezeonu, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Emmanuel Olufemi Ekundayo, Abubakar Gidado, Abdulrazak B. Ibrahim, Benjamin Ewa Ubi, Medical Biotechnology, Biopharmaceutics, Forensic Science and Bioinformatics, 2022
E. O. Ekundayo, J. C. Igwe, Ifeoma M. Ezeonu
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses in humans and animals. Infectious diseases are otherwise called communicable diseases because they can spread from one person to another, either directly or indirectly, with possibility of causing epidemics and pandemics. Infectious diseases in animals which can be spread to humans are called zoonotic diseases. In the past and as in the present, infectious agents have always posed serious threat to public health and human well-being. Infectious agents like human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) causing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the corona viruses (CoV) responsible for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) such as COVID-19 are the causes of global devastating pandemics for which cures have not been found (WHO, 2020). Apart from the pandemics which are often associated with high morbidity and mortality, other infectious diseases like malaria, tuberculosis (TB), viral hepatitis, drug-resistant bacterial infections, newly emerging viral infections like Ebola, Lassa fever and Zika viruses are posing significant threats to health in different parts of the world. Infectious diseases are responsible for over 17 million deaths annually (WHO, 2020).
Comparison of surgical gloves: perforation, satisfaction and manual dexterity
Published in International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics, 2022
Tulay Basak, Gul Sahin, Ayla Demirtas
Operating rooms are working environments with significant biological safety risks. One serious potential problem arises when scrub nurses are in direct contact with blood, urine, bile, saliva, tears and other body fluids during surgery. Scrub nurses are at risk of contracting the most commonly transmitted pathogens, hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), when exposed to devices contaminated with blood and body fluids [1]. It has been reported that the risk of being infected during surgery is 0.3–0.4% for HIV, 6–30% for HBV and 2.7–10% for HCV [2]. For this reason, taking measures to prevent exposure is of great importance. One such measure is the use of gloves. Personal equipment and gloves provide barriers that protect against infectious diseases.
Online sequential monitoring of spatio-temporal disease incidence rates
Published in IISE Transactions, 2020
A disease outbreak refers to the occurrence of disease cases in excess of what would normally be expected. In recent years, we experienced the outbreaks of Zika, Ebola, SARS, H1N5, H7N9, MERS-CoV, chikungunya, and many other damaging infectious diseases. Our society is under a constant threat of bioterrorist attacks and pandemic influenza. It is therefore important to effectively monitor the occurrence of infectious diseases constantly and detect their outbreaks as promptly as possible. Early detection of infectious disease outbreaks can help governments and individuals to take appropriate disease control and prevention measures in a timely manner, so that the disease epidemic can be controlled at an early stage and thus its damage can be minimized. This article aims to develop a new and effective statistical method for sequential monitoring of infectious disease incidence rates and for early detection of their outbreaks. Due to its generality, our proposed method should be useful for other spatio-temporal monitoring problems as well, including air quality surveillance in environmental research and sea-level pressure monitoring in oceanography.
Unaddressed problems and research perspectives in scheduling blood collection from donors
Published in Production Planning & Control, 2018
Seda Baş Güre, Giuliana Carello, Ettore Lanzarone, Semih Yalçındağ
Blood collection phase goes from donor’s arrival to the complete preparation of the blood unit. The process starts when the donor arrives at the blood collection centre. Here, donors are registered and visited (by a physician, a nurse or a qualified personnel) to assess their eligibility for donation; if eligible, donors make the donation (World Health Organization 2012). Once the blood is drawn from an individual, tests are performed to search for any infectious diseases (screening process). The blood units that pass the tests are separated into components, if required, and sent for storage.