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Making an accurate assessment
Published in Helen Taylor, Ian Stuart-Hamilton, Assessing the Nursing and Care Needs of Older Adults, 2021
Thompson38 cites ‘hindsight bias’ as a potential source of error at the knowledge-based level of decision making, this being the tendency people have to regard the outcome of an event or happening as having been predictable, but only once they are aware of the outcome.39 They ‘tend to view what has happened as having been inevitable’ (p. 428). This would indicate that where a similar case has been encountered in the past, the nurse uses their recollected knowledge of causative links and outcomes to predict outcomes in the newly encountered case. The explanation for this process is that when reflecting on the events leading to the outcome, cognitive models are reviewed and re-evaluated. The observer will disregard information that seems irrelevant to the outcome, and emphasise that which supports it.40 The individual’s recall of the event, choice or decision will then become biased in support of the known outcome.41
Prenatal Diagnosis
Published in Rosa Maria Quatraro, Pietro Grussu, Handbook of Perinatal Clinical Psychology, 2020
Ensure patient’s safety and stability. Assess patterns of sleep, eating, and ability to care for other children, if present (and help arrange for support if necessary). Assess for suicidality (note many patients express a passive wish to die after the trauma (McCoyd, 2007), but this can be differentiated from an actual suicidal threat). Provide suggestions for self-care, as needed. Determine prior or concurrent trauma and stressors to determine if more intensive care is needed at present. Help parents recognize the tendency toward hindsight bias, i.e., knowing now how much they are hurting and incorrectly concluding from this that they made the wrong decision. Help patients contextualize their decision-making process, reviewing information they had at the time, the extent of their research to obtain that information, what they were thinking and feeling at the time, and how challenging it is to make these decisions with uncertainty, in the absence of clear and decisive information about the extent of likely impairment and the wide spectrum of severity possible. Help patients recognize they are likely feeling sadness for the abnormal baby and the difficult decision they confronted rather than for the actual decision they made, no matter how painful it remains.
Elements of Case Analysis
Published in Julie Dickinson, Anne Meyer, Karen J. Huff, Deborah A. Wipf, Elizabeth K. Zorn, Kathy G. Ferrell, Lisa Mancuso, Marjorie Berg Pugatch, Joanne Walker, Karen Wilkinson, Legal Nurse Consulting Principles and Practices, 2019
Tonia Aiken, Phyllis ZaiKaner Miller, Marguerite Barbacci
An example of hindsight bias frequently encountered is the autopsy confirming the cause of death or presence of undiagnosed disease or condition. The defendant likely did not have the information revealed by the autopsy, and treatment decisions and actions were based only on the information available at the time care was rendered.
Evaluating medical students’ ability to identify and report errors: finding gaps in patient safety education
Published in Medical Education Online, 2022
Sungjoon Lee, HyeRin Roh, Myounghun Kim, Ji Kyoung Park
From the perspective of patient safety, students’ ability to report errors can be explained through the sub-functions. Firstly, self-regulated learners monitor themselves, their teams, and the workplace, and identify common preventable medical errors. Secondly, they correctly judge the root causes of errors by utilising systems thinking [13,14]. Thirdly, they plan behaviour changes at the individual, team, organisational, and patient levels for further error prevention and quality improvement. In contrast, learners without self-regulation may not report errors because they do not notice any errors to report or do not know how to report them [7,15]. They may falsely judge the error causes with a hindsight bias. Furthermore, their self-reactions may lead them to neglect their errors, make judgments in their own favour, or prevent them from changing their behaviour [16–18].
Retrospective Perceptions of Grooming in Same-Sex versus Opposite-Sex Child Sexual Abuse
Published in Journal of Child Sexual Abuse, 2022
Kayla D. Spenard, Daniella K. Cash
Despite prior research demonstrating it is difficult to detect grooming behaviors as they are occurring, once it is revealed that abuse occurred, it is common to hear statements like “I knew it all along” or “I always knew something was wrong.” One potential explanation for this discrepancy may lie in the literature examining the hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1977). The hindsight bias refers to the propensity for individuals to overestimate the likelihood they would have predicted an event would occur when given outcome information (hindsight) as opposed to when they are not given outcome information (foresight; Fischhoff, 1977; Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Studies that have investigated the effects of the hindsight bias have demonstrated that individuals who receive outcome knowledge tend to (a) overemphasize their ability of predicting an event would occur and (b) underestimate the effect receiving outcome information has on their perception of a specific event occurring (Fischhoff, 1977). Winters and Jeglic (2016) examined the effects of hindsight bias on grooming detection amongst relatives versus non-relatives. In line with what would be predicted by the hindsight bias, participants who were told that abuse occurred provided higher likelihood ratings that the adult was a predator than participants who did not receive that information. These data are suggestive that individuals are overconfident in their ability to detect grooming behaviors despite their actual poor performance when attempting to identify these behaviors. This study also highlights the discrepancy between participants’ expected and actual detection performance.
Avoiding hindsight in non-obviousness determination: case law review of pharmaceutical patents and guidance from the KSR v Teleflex decision
Published in Expert Opinion on Therapeutic Patents, 2021
Hindsight bias is defined as the tendency to overestimate the foreseeability of an outcome once it is known. Psychologists have studied and postulated that humans usually cannot ignore what they have seen or learnt. They have termed this phenomenon as ‘hindsight bias.’ Fischhoff. B explored different hypothesis to confirm the existence of hindsight bias in humans. Based on empirical studies, Fischhoff initially hypothesized that the prior knowledge of an outcome produces a substantial increase in its predictability. Fischhoff has also proved it with the help of empirical studies. For example, in one of the experiment the subjects were grouped as ‘Before groups’ and ‘After groups’. In the experiment, the ‘Before group’ was asked to read a brief description of 150 words relating to a historical or clinical event for which four possible outcomes were provided. The ‘After group’ was also asked to read a similar description. However in addition to the description, the ‘After group’ was also provided with one of the possible outcomes as the ‘actual or true’ outcome. The responses from the groups were examined which revealed that the judgments made by the ‘After group’ was biased by hindsight due to the prior knowledge of the outcome [1]. Since then, Fischhoff carried out and published various experiments that have confirmed the existence of the hindsight bias in human decisions in different fields. Forensic investigations, patent examinations court proceedings, and criminal law are some of the areas affected by hindsight bias. Legal systems involving initial investigations, court proceedings, expert opinion and final judgments are more prone to hindsight bias [2].