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Volcanoes and Their Products
Published in Dexter Perkins, Kevin R. Henke, Adam C. Simon, Lance D. Yarbrough, Earth Materials, 2019
Dexter Perkins, Kevin R. Henke, Adam C. Simon, Lance D. Yarbrough
Volcanology, derived from the name of the Roman god of fire, Vulcan, is the study of volcanoes. It is a hybrid science, involving investigations by geologists, geophysicists, geochemists, geodesists, archaeologists, and others. Figure 7.5 shows the first volcanological observatory, the Vesuvius Observatory near Mt. Vesuvius and Naples, that was founded in 1841. Today other dedicated volcano laboratories exist, including notably the United States Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on the Big Island of Hawaii.
An initial assessment of short-term eruption forecasting options in New Zealand
Published in New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2022
Melody G. Whitehead, Mark S. Bebbington, Jonathan N. Procter, Matthew E. Irwin, Graham Paul D. Viskovic
‘A principal goal for a volcano observatory is to accurately communicate results of scientific evaluations and forecasts together with the associated uncertainties’ (Pallister et al. 2019, p. 4). False positives (an eruption is forecast but no eruption occurs) may result in loss of trust in future forecasts (e.g. forecasts of ongoing activity at Guadeloupe 1976 – Fiske 1984; conflicting forecasts at Campi Flegri 1970 – Barberi and Carapezza 1996), whereby false negatives (a forecast of no eruption but an eruption occurs) may cause loss of life and/or legal consequences. The acceptance or tolerance of forecast errors should not affect the forecast itself (Marzocchi 2012; Papale 2017), but in practice any potential repercussions may affect the willingness of scientists to provide a forecast altogether (e.g. the aftermath of L’Aquila 2009 earthquake – Alexander 2014).