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Suitability evaluation of earthquake emergency shelter site selection
Published in Mohd Johari Mohd Yusof, Junwen Zhang, Advances in Civil Engineering: Structural Seismic Resistance, Monitoring and Detection, 2023
B. Zheng, J. Liu, H. Zhang, W. Zhou
A scenario is a set of future hypothetical events constructed to illustrate the possible chain of causal events and their decision points (Amer et al. 2013). Scenario planning provides an opportunity to imagine a reasonable future state, thereby helping to reduce risks, making use of opportunities, and avoiding potential threats in the process of strategy making Ramírez and Selin). Scenarios can also be combined with MCA to determine scores, weights, and standards of different criteria in different scenarios (Ward et al. 2016). Montibeller et al. (2006) and Schroder & Lambert (2011) bound a series of events in the future with scenarios and adjusted the weights of the evaluative criteria according to the scenarios.
Organizational Governance and Leadership
Published in Robert Pojasek, Organizational Risk Management and Sustainability: A Practical Step-by-Step Guide, 2017
Strategic planning must account for the effects of uncertainty and how they affect the future. A scenario is an internally consistent view of the future. Scenario planning is the process of generating and analyzing a set of different futures.30 The results from building scenarios are not an accurate prediction of the future; rather, they provide better thinking about the future. Scenarios are used in strategic planning to provide a context for decisions. As events and incidents unfold in the external operating environment, it is necessary to continue to review whether plans fit the realities of the PESTLE analysis results. If they do not, the planning team needs to revise its scenario analysis.31
Resilience + adaption
Published in Rob Fleming, Saglinda H Roberts, Sustainable Design for the Built Environment, 2019
Rob Fleming, Saglinda H Roberts
One method for increasing our chances of creating a building that will “… remain always capable of offering new options for its use” (Brand 1994, p. 185) is to use a process called scenario planning in the very initial stages of a design. Scenario planning is a process used in business administration to help visualize what future conditions or events are most likely to happen, what the outcomes or effects would be like, and then to examine various ways to respond to them.
Digital disruption of the AEC industry: technology-oriented scenarios for possible future development paths
Published in Construction Management and Economics, 2018
Rita Lavikka, Johanna Kallio, Thomas Casey, Miimu Airaksinen
If the current AEC organizations could foresee the future, they could plan and respond to future demands by taking corrective action to achieve the desired outcomes of digitalization. Anticipating the future is challenging; however, it is useful for aligning, directing and renewing current organizational strategies in the AEC industry (Harty et al.2007, Harty and Leiringer 2017). Scenario planning is a commonly used approach in many industries to facilitate long-range planning and decision-making during uncertainty. This approach can be used to embrace uncertainty, complexity, change and the possible consequences of decisions. At best, the approach provides strategic decision-makers advice on moving from the current situation to probable futures (Harty et al.2007).
The “humane in the loop”: Inclusive research design and policy approaches to foster capacity building assistive technologies in the COVID-19 era
Published in Assistive Technology, 2022
John Bricout, Julienne Greer, Noelle Fields, Ling Xu, Priscila Tamplain, Kris Doelling, Bonita Sharma
Strategic decision-making in the COVID-19 era of uncertainty and rapid change requires insights into plausible futures, for which scenario planning is a foresight technique that facilitates a flexible, multi-perspective approach toward envisioning a desired future (Meyerowitz et al., 2018). As technology evolves, there is a recognition of the value of tools that enable foresight, rather than predictions, recognizing the indeterminate nature of the “future”. Hence, the alternative term “futures” is used. Scenario planning is a four-stage process of articulating a likely “scene”, identifying then ranking key driving forces, and generating plausible scenarios around emergent themes can serve as a powerful technology foresight tool (Hussain et al., 2017).
A framework for managing organizations in complex environments
Published in Construction Management and Economics, 2018
Martelli (2007, p. 15) defines scenario planning as “the description of a possible future state of a system,” and a scenario process as the “elaboration of a set of scenarios each describing a possible alternative state of a system in the future”. White (2004, p. 126) views scenario planning as “a limited number of possible futures, each reflecting a different way in which key variables might evolve over time”; moreover, he considers scenario planning as the only approach which directly tackles the uncertainty of the future where scenarios will reflect the nature of changes which might occur. Peterson et al. (2003, p. 359) support this perspective and define scenario planning as a “systemic method for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures”. Levy (1994) notifies that the long-term planning and anticipation of future for chaotic systems are impossible, and it rather needs to consider some possible scenarios. Scenario planning represents a solution to overcome unpredictability and uncertainties by predicting many scenarios and trying to assume solutions accordingly. White (2004) views scenario building (planning) valuable, even critical to an enterprise when there is a high level of uncertainty in the general or industry environments. Furthermore, scenario planning goes with the complexity assumptions that prediction is difficult. It helps in mitigating failure and sharp consequences by raising readiness, analysing the impact of various uncontrollable change, assimilating emerging markets and trends and anticipating portfolio of options. In addition, scenario planning helps in forecasting corporate future environment within dynamic context to align the corporate strategy and to confront a crisis. Whereas, its related elements reflect the significance of strategic analysis and understanding the external environment to define the threats and opportunities. In other words, these are the essence of strategic analysis to develop the scenarios.