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Producing long-term forecasts of the development of arctic shelf
Published in Vladimir Litvinenko, Innovation-Based Development of the Mineral Resources Sector: Challenges and Prospects, 2018
A. Ilinova, A. Chanysheva, N. Kourentzes, I. Svetunkov
In doing so, we consider available data on hydrocarbon reserves and resources in the Arctic, the volume of oil production on the Russian continental shelf, and statistics on the price of oil over the past two years. We develop an argument map, which allows systemising the main perspectives and possible effects, as well as constraints on project implementation. The work presents a systematisation of the key factors that have significant positive and negative impact on the ability of national oil and gas companies in the Russian Federation to develop hydrocarbon deposits in the Arctic shelf. The factors are divided into manageable and conditionally manageable. Subsequently, we recommend a set of quantitative indicators to assess the prospects of a project. In the final part of the paper, an overview of the main methods of long-term forecasting of oil and gas shelf projects' development is discussed.
How can management of uncertainty in sustainable diversion limits be advanced in the review of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan?
Published in Australasian Journal of Water Resources, 2023
Leila H. Noble, Joseph H.A. Guillaume, Carina Wyborn, Anthony J. Jakeman
We created an argument map based on analysis of several key documents to reconstruct the implicit argument for the SDL volume decision in 2012 and therefore to examine the role of uncertainty in the decision-making process. An argument is a set of reasons, or premises, supporting a conclusion (Macagno and Walton 2015). An argument map visually represents all parts of an argument including reasons, conclusions, and relationships between them such as whether supporting or countering (Facione and Gittens 2015). For example, Knüsel et al. (2020) assess model uncertainty by creating a comprehensive argument map of the assumptions and justifications for a model and assessing whether the premises are true. Renton and Macintosh (2007) explore the potential of argument maps to engage stakeholders in policy debates by representing information from documents and enabling stakeholders to understand the reasons presented in the debate.