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Published in Reem Fikri Mohamed Osman Digna, Optimizing the Operation of a Multiple Reservoir System in the Eastern Nile Basin Considering Water and Sediment Fluxes, 2021
Reem Fikri Mohamed Osman Digna
In the Nile basin, a number of optimization studies have been carried out. To evaluate the feasibility of Toshka canal project in Egypt, (Guariso, et al., 1981) developed a non-linear optimization model for the real-time management of the AHD. The analysis of the over year operation problem was compared with fixed operating rules as suggested by Hurst. A real-time management model proved superior in yielding a better hydrograph simulation. The study concluded that the construction of the Toshka canal was not feasible, even if the Jonglei canal project in South Sudan would be completed. Stedinger et al. (1984) demonstrated that both stationary and non-stationary stochastic dynamic programming models can identify better operation policies of AHD reservoir when improved hydrologic state variables are employed (such as using forecast equations for current period’s inflow). In the same context, Kelman et al. (1990) developed sampling stochastic dynamic programming that differs from the conventional stochastic dynamic programming in that the complex spatial and temporal characteristics of stream flow processes can be captured from a large number of stream flow sequences.
The Large Dams Dispute and the Future of Large Dams
Published in Thayer Scudder, The Future of Large Dams, 2012
The fourth activity involved a detailed ten-month evaluation in 1991–1992 for IUCN of the Government of Botswana’s Southern Okavango Integrated Water Development Project (Scudder et al, 1993). The fifth involved repeated consultancy visits to a number of large river basin development projects, including Ghana’s Volta Project at Akosombo (three visits: 1967–1989), Sudan’s Jonglei Canal Project (three visits: 1976–1978) and Rahad Project (two visits: 1979–1981), Sri Lanka’s Accelerated Mahaweli Project (nine visits between 1979 and 1999), India’s Sardar Sarovar Project (four visits between 1983 and 1989), Mali’s Manantali Project (six visits: 1985–1989) and China’s Three Gorges Project (three visits: 1986–1987) as well as individual consultancies dealing with, among others, Hydro-Quebec’s Grande Baleine Project, the Jordan Valley Irrigation Project and China’s Longtan Project.
Egypt’s water balancing act
Published in Water International, 2022
In 1909, Sir William Garstin first proposed a project to build a canal to bypass the Sudd and reduce evaporation losses there; similar proposals have been made for the Machar Marches in the Baro-Akobo catchment. The Jonglei I project would augment net flows by some 3.8 bcm/year, Jonglei II by 3.4 bcm/year and the Machar Marshes canalization by 3.2 bcm/year (Howell & Allen, 1994, p. 215). Fierce local opposition brought about the abandonment of the 360 km-long Jonglei canal after two-thirds had been built and the Government of South Sudan made it clear in 2013 that ‘any potential plans to develop Jonglei canal would be strongly opposed’ (ENTRO, 2014, p. 35). This is unsurprising as South Sudan would suffer all the social and environmental costs without any direct benefits, but, in purely economic terms, it could be a good investment. The cost estimate for Jonglei I in 1972 was £32 million (about US$213 million in 2021).5 If each project took seven years to construct with cost proportional to the net flow increase, operation and maintenance costs were 10% of capital costs, and benefits to Sudan and Egypt were US$28 million per bcm as calculated above, the internal rate of return would be 22%, less the social and environmental costs arising in South Sudan.