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Bayesian Applications
Published in Song S. Qian, Mark R. DuFour, Ibrahim Alameddine, Bayesian Applications in Environmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan, 2023
Song S. Qian, Mark R. DuFour, Ibrahim Alameddine
In the lilac first bloom dates data, we notice the large variation in the first bloom dates from year to year, as shown in Figure 7.14. Such a large variation is very typical in phenology data because of the natural annual variation in weather. Furthermore, the large annual variation also leads to high variability in the estimated model parameters (Table 7.3). In the lilac data, we have observations from multiple locations across the continental U.S. We expect that (1) all locations are affected by the global climate change (hence the hockey stick model applies) and (2) when fitting data from different locations to the hockey stick model the estimated model parameters will vary by location. With the large number of sites, pooling data under a hierarchical structure is desirable. That is, we can expand the hockey stick model (equation (7.8)) to:
The Future of Biosecurity Surveillance
Published in Kezia Barker, Robert A. Francis, Routledge Handbook of Biosecurity and Invasive Species, 2021
Evangeline Corcoran, Grant Hamilton
Important contexts to consider in the development of future surveillance practices are the biology and ecology of the target species, species group or pathogen. These considerations include factors that vary over time, such as latent or asymptomatic periods, seasonal patterns and phenology, and spatial factors such as mode of spread, mobility, distribution of host plants and range of spatial extent (Baxter and Hamilton, 2016). Traits such as rate of reproduction, survivorship and abundance are also important to consider. For example, there has been difficulty in scaling up molecular diagnostic tests that work by testing a single specimen per reaction. Very large numbers of insects are typically found in traps in biosecurity surveillance situations, so identifying each one by one would be impractical (Piper et al., 2019). The wider environmental context is also worth considering as factors such as host-plant diversity, abundance and distribution of vectors and microclimatic conditions are likely to effect likelihood of invasion of infection (Beresford et al., 2018; Cope et al., 2019; Wiltshire et al., 2019). This wide range of considerations precludes any one technological innovation being the best solution to conducting surveillance on all species, but, as previously discussed, many are adaptable to diverse scenarios, particularly statistical modelling results that can be strategically generalised (Lopes et al., 2019).
Aeroallergen sampling
Published in Richard F. Lockey, Dennis K. Ledford, Allergens and Allergen Immunotherapy, 2020
Estelle Levetin, Josh D. McLoud
The sampling techniques and analysis methods described earlier have been widely used to identify airborne pollen and spores. Unfortunately, none of these techniques or methods can provide real-time analysis of bioaerosols. Pollen levels currently available online or through mass media are, at best, data that represent the previous day's collections. In addition, these traditional sampling methods require considerable time and expertise for the microscopic analysis of collected air samples [86]. To overcome this time lag, many investigators have developed pollen or spore forecasts to estimate current and future pollen levels [39,87–90]. However, even the best forecasting models only provide an estimate of exposure based on meteorological conditions and plant phenology. For allergists and their patients, knowledge of current (real-time) exposure levels would be valuable [91].
Antimicrobial activity of flavonoids glycosides and pyrrolizidine alkaloids from propolis of Scaptotrigona aff. postica
Published in Toxin Reviews, 2023
T. M. Cantero, P. I. Silva Junior, G. Negri, R. M. Nascimento, R. Z. Mendonça
Pyrrolizidine alkaloids are unknown in Apis mellifera propolis. Cyanogenic glycosides and alkaloids are often toxic to insects. Pyrrolizidine alkaloids are aliphatic bicyclic metabolites from several plant groups, including the genera Eupatorium, Heliotropium and Senecio (Asteraceae), Crotalaria (Leguminosae) and Symphytum (Boraginaceae). So far it is not possible to point out a likely plant origin of the pyrrolizidine alkaloids of the propolis analyzed. As mentioned in introduction, the preferential detection of the alkaloids in samples collected in months of October, November and December, suggests an herbaceous plant source (possibly with annual cycle). This is coherent with the phenology of Crotalaria and Senecio, two tropical genera widespread in Brazil. A higher likelihood is that a species of Crotalaria may be the resin source of this type of propolis. Symphytum officinale cannot be precluded as possible source. Although not of tropical origin, this medicinal herb is widely cultivated in many parts of the world and contains pyrrolizidine alkaloids structurally similar with found in this work (Negri et al. 2022). Despite the hepatotoxic, genotoxic, cytotoxic, tumorigenic, and neurotoxic activities of 1,2-unsaturated PAs, they can be used for the treatment of diseases and infections, due to their glycosidase inhibitory activity, that demonstrated antidiabetic effect, besides anticancer, fungicidal, and antiviral effects (Moreira et al. 2018, Tasca et al. 2018, Schramm et al. 2019, Mädge et al. 2020).
The rising of allergic respiratory diseases in a changing world: from climate change to migration
Published in Expert Review of Respiratory Medicine, 2020
Benedetta Biagioni, Isabella Annesi-Maesano, Gennaro D’Amato, Lorenzo Cecchi
First of all, global warming interferes with plant phenology, altering the bio-geographic distribution of plants and affecting the vegetal life cycle [12]. An actual increased pollen production and an augmented duration of pollen exposure, due to the extension of growing season, was demonstrated for several trees producing allergenic pollen, such as birch, oak and olive tree [13]. A increased length of pollen season was also reported for ragweed and associated to lengthening of the frost free period [14]. Also, a general trend toward an earlier start of flowering season of grass was observed and associated to climate change [15]. As expected, climate conditions leading to the increase in airborne pollen concentration influence the prevalence and severity of ARD. In this regard, hot, dry and sunny meteorological conditions have been associated with increased pollen count and augmented allergic rhinitis prevalence in children, while wetter conditions and lower mean temperatures have been related to a lower hay fever prevalence [16].
Human exposure to larvae of processionary moths in France: study of symptomatic cases registered by the French poison control centres between 2012 and 2019
Published in Clinical Toxicology, 2022
Pauline Vasseur, Sandra Sinno-Tellier, Jérôme Rousselet, Jérôme Langrand, Alain Roques, Juliette Bloch, Magali Labadie
Monthly data showed a seasonality of records reported to PCCs, with a peak fluctuating across the years. These data seem to be consistent with phenology. While urticating instars are always present from autumn to spring year after year, processions can be more or less early. Therefore, climatic conditions might alter the period most at risk of exposure to urticating larvae in procession. The early and late processions could be an emerging issue, which increases the period of exposure to urticating larvae during several months, and above all, makes the seasonality of exposure less predictable.