China
Africa
Explore chapters and articles related to this topic
HFE in Accident Investigation and Safety Management
Published in R. S. Bridger, Introduction to Human Factors and Ergonomics, 2017
Although it is true that when a fair coin is tossed, there will be an equal number of heads and tails over the long term (because the probability of either is 0.5), short sequences of tosses need not resemble long sequences. This misconception underpins the well-known Gambler's Fallacy or Law of Averages in which random events are seen as self-correcting processes. The misconception states, for example, that after a long run of heads, a tail is now “due” to restore the appearance of the process. Unfortunately, a fair coin does not “know” that the sequence of prior tosses “looks wrong” and the probability of a head or tail remains the same each time the coin is tossed. Similarly, people often expect sequences generated by random process to “look” random—few lottery players will deliberately gamble the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 when allowed to bet on any 6 numbers between 1 and 50—because they expect the winning sequence to “look random.” Perhaps, fewer people would bet on lotteries if they realised the probability of the 1–6 sequence is equally unlikely as any other!
Random Processes and Queuing Theory
Published in C. Ariel Pinto, Paul R. Garvey, Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems, 2016
C. Ariel Pinto, Paul R. Garvey
Identify which of the following statements are deterministic and which are probabilistic.It will rain tomorrow.There is one-in-10-million chance of winning jackpot at the state lottery.My car broke down after 10 years.The butter I bought weighs one pound.
Probability
Published in Michael Baron, Probability and Statistics for Computer Scientists, 2019
This example suggests that in a long run, probability of an event can be viewed as a proportion of times this event happens, or its relative frequency. In forecasting, it is common to speak about the probability as a likelihood (say, the company’s profit is likely to rise during the next quarter). In gambling and lottery, probability is equivalent to odds. Having the winning odds of 1 to 99 (1:99) means that the probability to win is 0.01, and the probability to lose is 0.99. It also means, on a relative-frequency language, that if you play long enough, you will win about 1% of the time.
Quantum models of cognition and decision
Published in International Journal of Parallel, Emergent and Distributed Systems, 2018
Chance of winning the lottery is approximately equal to one in fourteen million. Result is completely general and of course it does not depend on the fact whether we select combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or let’s say combination of 7, 22, 12, 36, 49, 13 (although in general, the last one ‘seems to be more random’ than the first one).