Lindy Effect

Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect is a concept introduced by Taleb that suggests that the only effective judge of non-perishable things is time, and that an idea will fail if it is not useful. It is related to various decision theory problems, including the Doomsday Argument and the Secretary problem, and is also connected to the observer selection effect, the preference to believe in God, and the identification of fraud series of numbers.From: Preventing Industrial Accidents [2021], Probability, Choice, and Reason [2022]

Heinrich in the 21st century

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Published in Carsten Busch, Preventing Industrial Accidents, 2021

Carsten Busch

Whether one likes it or not, Heinrich’s work is here to stay – at least for a while longer. Taleb’s “Lindy Effect” suggests time as the only effective judge of non-perishable things, “an idea will fail if it is not useful.” Things that survive have shown to possess some kind of resilience. After all, they have been exposed to potentially harmful factors, but are around, in some form or another. Taleb even links to Popper’s thoughts, “The longer an idea has been around without being falsified, the longer its future life expectancy” (Taleb, 2018, p.149).

Probability, Choice, and Reason

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Published in Technometrics, 2022

Stan Lipovetsky

Chapter 3, “Probability and Choice,” presents problems which do not have a unique agreed solution or with a surprising solution. It considers William Newcomb’s paradox discussed in decision theory as a choice between reason unsupported by evidence, and evidence unsupported by reason; the Sleeping Beauty problem; the God’s Coin Toss problem with the self-sampling and self-indication assumptions; the Doomsday Argument of the human race extinction, related also to the Lindy effect; the problem of when to stop looking and start choosing, aka the Secretary problem; why we more often are in the slower lane problem, related to the observer selection effect; Blaise Pascal’s Wager problem of preference to believe in God, and the related climate change and mugging problems; J.M. Keynes’ Beauty Contest, or money market problem; and the famous Benford’s Law, helping to identify the fraud series of numbers.

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Heinrich in the 21st century

Probability, Choice, and Reason