A Survey of Energy Models
Published in S. C. Littlechild, K. G. Vaidya, Energy Strategies for the UK, 2019
S. C. Littlechild, K. G. Vaidya
Many models attempt to estimate future demands for each fuel [8, 9, 13, 23], or for energy as a while [1, 14, 25–30]. Sometimes these are ‘point estimates’, in other cases demand is estimated as a function of prices, incomes, etc. Typically, these are statistical or econometric models. However there is a growing literature which is critical of such methods, and advocates instead a ‘bottom-up’ approach involving engineering estimates of fuel requirements for each energy-using process and sector [27–9]. Forecasting models of either kind are essentially outside the focus of our book, although for illustration a few examples are discussed in the Appendix. Of course, we need to embody particular forecasts in our own model, as discussed in Chapter 4.