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Safety Risk Assessment and Management
Published in Debi Prasad Tripathy, Mine Safety Science and Engineering, 2019
Event tree analysis is a forward, bottom-up, logical modeling technique that uses decision trees and logically develops visual models of the possible outcomes of an initiating event (Diamantidis et al., 2000; Hong et al., 2009). ETA is a graphical representation of the logic model that identifies and quantifies the possible outcomes following the initiating event. This technique can be applied to a system early in the design process to identify potential issues that may arise rather than correcting the issues after they occur (Beim and Hobbs, 1997).
Force-System Resultants and Equilibrium
Published in Richard C. Dorf, The Engineering Handbook, 2018
Based on the occurrence of an initiating event, event tree analysis examines possible system outcomes or consequences. This analysis tool is particularly effective in showing the interdependence of system components that is important in identifying events and that at first might appear insignificant, but due to interdependency result in devastating results. Event tree analysis is similar to fault tree analysis because both methods use probabilistic reliability data of the individual components and events along each path to compute the likelihood of each outcome.
The principles of risk assessment
Published in Alan Martin, Sam Harbison, Karen Beach, Peter Cole, An Introduction to Radiation Protection, 2018
Alan Martin, Sam Harbison, Karen Beach, Peter Cole
In contrast to fault tree analysis, event tree analysis starts from an undesired initiator, such as loss of electrical supply or component failure, and follows possible further system events through to a series of ultimate consequences. At the point where each new event arises, a new node is added to the tree with a split of probabilities for each new branch. The probabilities of a range of top events arising from the initial event can then be determined. Figure 10.3 illustrates a simple event tree.
A mixed quantitative approach to evaluate rockfall risk and the maximum allowable traffic on road infrastructure
Published in Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2022
M. Marchelli, V. De Biagi, D. Bertolo, M. Paganone, D. Peila
The event tree analysis is a logical based procedure in which both success and failure are evaluated, starting from a single initiating event and defining all the possible alternative pathway options which can develop. The latter are mapped as branches and the nodes serve as transition from one position to another along the event tree, defining binary (Yes/No) mutually exhaustive possibilities, realising different scenarios. The end points identify a unique outcome, whose probability is given by the product of the conditional probabilities along their own pathway. The probability of more outcomes is given by the sum of the probabilities of each outcome. The value of each occurrence probability depends on different parameters, to which a certain degree of uncertainty is inevitably associated (Macciotta et al. 2017).
Risk based framework for assessing resilience in a complex multi-actor supply chain domain
Published in Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, 2018
Anil Kumar Ravulakollu, Luca Urciuoli, Boriana Rukanova, Yao-Hua Tan, Rudi A. Hakvoort
The international standard ISO 31000 lays down iterative and stage wise guidelines for managing organisational risks. It identifies risks as effects of uncertainty on the organisational objectives. The guidelines could be used by any organisation regardless of the industry, operation and the complexity (Purdy 2010; Gjerdrum and Peter 2011). RM frameworks that organisations adopt to address operational risks are often built around standard Risk Assessment (RA) techniques (Mullai 2006; Bichou 2008). These can be qualitative (like check lists, HAZOP), quantitative (like Bayesian network analysis, Quantitative Risk Assessment) and hybrid (like Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)) (Marhavilas, Koulouriotis, and Gemeni 2011; Yang, Bonsall, and Wang 2010; Martins and Maturana 2010; Lee et al. 1985).
Digital project twin for quantitative cost, risk and schedule assessment of capital projects
Published in Australian Journal of Multi-Disciplinary Engineering, 2022
Philip Sander, Markus Spiegl, Taylor Burns, John Reilly
For complex risks, event tree analysis helps distinguish between, and analyse different, interdependent scenarios within the risk. Figure 10 shows how the risk of a tunnel boring machine (TBM) advancing through a fault zone was broken down into scenarios (also known as knots). The first knot depicts if the TBM is halted, in which case possible further events are TBM deadlock or, in the worst case, a bypass tunnel. Each knot has its own probability of occurrence and probabilistic cost and time impact, all of which are combined to represent the aggregated cost (yellow) and schedule (blue) risk profile on the right-hand side of Figure 10.