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Why we don’t learn?
Published in Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigations Better Questions, 2017
Think of operational learning on an “S” curve or perhaps better still, a diffusion curve. The Diffusion curve, a concept developed by Everett Rodgers, talks about the types of people who accept innovation easily (early adopters) or the types of people who accepting innovation is much more uncomfortable (laggards). The same is true with operational learning. Some information is easy to identify early in the quest for an explanation. Some information in learning is much slower in appearing before the team. Just as with the Diffusion of innovation, there is a way information flows with time.
Market segmentation based modeling: An approach to understand multiple modes in diffusion curves
Published in Mangey Ram, J. Paulo Davim, Advanced Mathematical Techniques in Engineering Sciences, 2018
A. Anand, R. Aggarwal, O. Singh
Product life cycle (PLC) is considered to be the trajectory of sales of a product from its genesis to its final stages (Chandrasekaran and Tellis 2007). Considering it from a macro perspective, other researchers describe it as the fluctuations in the market during the product’s lifetime (Helfat and Peteraf 2003). Hence, PLC can help to determine product-related strategy decisions for the company (Wong and Ellis 2007). Hofer (1975) studied and reemphasized the importance of PLC on business planning. Forrester was a pioneer in studying PLC and its applicability as a tool for management analysis and managerial modeling. He assumes the industry and products to be homogenous in terms of their characteristics and customer viewpoint to analyze the PLC stages. Hence, it is quintessential in mapping the development of innovation and its market opportunities. Rogers regards the diffusion curve based on potential adopters into five market segments: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Subsequently, Moore worked on Rogers’ normal diffusion curve and adopters’ categories to describe expansion of the new products in the market. Moore detects a break in the process as the later consumer or mainstream market does not necessarily depend on the earlier adopters for product information. However, it can be perceived that Moore’s purported “break” is not as sharp as he would make us believe. After the initial life span of the innovation, there may be a slump in the market, yet the other market comes up simultaneously before the previous market has died down. Similarly, there may be entry of the other market during the decline phase of the foregoing market. Therefore, assuming time lag might be misleading as at some point of time two or more markets exist side by side. Introduction of a multimodal product life cycle curve for the simultaneous multimarkets phenomena is more imperative as it is more realistic. But in this study, we consider the existence of two simultaneous markets to study the bimodal structure as a particular case of multimodal curves. The improved curve is going to have new long-bearing repercussions on marketing strategies for both the dying early market and the mainstream market.
Colour forecasting
Published in Textile Progress, 2019
Sproles [344] proposed that the measurement of diffusion through the use of diffusion curves to be useful for forecasters. Diffusion curves track adopters of the trend over periods of time. The rate of acceptance is said to be analysed and an evaluation of current acceptance realised. With this knowledge, it should be possible to estimate the likely extent of the trend. Forecasters usually understand the current acceptance of a trend through their observations and as part of their intuitive processes. Diffusion relates to innovation and also relates directly to timeframes which are given particular titles, such as fads and classics, which are discussed in Sections 7.2 and 7.4.