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Strategies in Naturalistic Decision Making: A Cognitive Task Analysis of Naval Weather Forecasting
Published in Schraagen Jan Maarten, Laura G. Militello, Tom Ormerod, Lipshitz Raanan, Naturalistic Decision Making and Macrocognition, 2017
Schraagen Jan Maarten, Laura G. Militello, Tom Ormerod, Lipshitz Raanan
The Navy forecasters produced a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for the think-aloud verbal protocol. A TAF is a 24-hour forecast for several parameters including cloud cover, cloud ceiling, visibility, winds, precipitation, and pressure for the 5-mile radius of the airport. We recorded forecasters’ verbalized thoughts as they completed this task, as well as the video signal from the primary computer workstation. Five sessions were recorded over two days. The four Navy weather forecasters who participated are referred to as Forecasters A, B, C, and D to preserve anonymity. Forecaster D was recorded twice. Fortuitously, the group spanned a wide range of expertise, from six months’ forecasting experience to more than twenty years, allowing comparisons based on expertise. All participants had completed the Navy’s course of basic training for weather forecasters.
Flight rescheduling, fleet rerouting and passenger reassignment for typhoon disruption events
Published in Transportation Letters, 2022
In practice, typhoon information is updated with the passage of time. However, it is very bothersome for airline decision makers to repeatedly rearrange the flights. Thus, in practice, flights are systematically rescheduled at most once. When typhoon information is modified, locally made flight rearrangements may be inappropriate. Therefore, we adopt a dynamic framework for application of the model to reschedule flights and reroute aircraft continuously. For example, as illustrated in Figure 7, the disruption period predicted at time point T1 by the first terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) is from time point S1 to E1. The planning period in which the airline should reschedule its flights and reroute its fleet is from T1 to TE. After three hours, however, the time point moves to T2, and the flights which were assigned in the period from T1 to T2 have already taken off or landed. The disruption point reported by the second TAF is still at time point S1, but the reoperation time point is changed to E2. The planning period is reduced from T2 to TE. Therefore, flights which have taken off or landed before time point T2 are fixed but the others from T2 to TE should be readjusted again. After three hours, the time point moves to T3, when the typhoon strikes the airport and the third TAF advances the reoperation time point to E3. Similarly, the flights assigned before T3 have already taken off or landed so they are fixed when the airline reschedules other flights and reroutes the fleet in the new planning period from T3 to TE. Finally, the typhoon warning is lifted and the time point passes to Tn. The decision maker should fix those flights which have taken off or landed before this time point Tn but has to reschedule the other flights and reroute the aircraft which have taken off or landed between time point Tn to TE.