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Forecasting Lubricant Demand
Published in R. David Whitby, Lubricant Marketing, Selling, and Key Account Management, 2023
Some business forecasts are derived from a forecast of the country's economy. A forecast of a specific national market or industry may need to take account of expected changes in national spending power and output. Numerous forecasts are made by banks, stockbrokers and forecasting institutions, and it is possible to use one of these to provide a background forecast for a company's specific requirements. It is essential, however, for a company to check the assumptions used in a national forecast. It is not difficult to vary some of the assumptions and to modify the statistical picture of the whole economy. Consensus forecasts are also available, compiled from a number of national forecasts. However, these should be treated with caution since the assumptions behind the component forecasts cannot be checked.
Supply Chain Excellence
Published in James William Martin, Operational Excellence, 2021
Demand management drives global supply chain planning. Problems with demand estimation, whether from forecasting models or consensus models, cause misalignment of scarce resources and process issue of many types throughout the supply chain. Customer satisfaction and operational productivity are reduced by inaccurate demand because capacity planning is incorrect and schedules are missed. Forecasts need to be strategically aligned at all levels, and a consensus forecast must be developed by the sales and operations planning team. To the extent that forecasts are necessary, it is important to measure and continually improve their accuracy. With digitization, organizations should emphasize customer relationships and developing systems to gather customer demand automatically through digitization methods. This will provide visibility to demand across the global supply chain using POS data and technologies.
Forecasting in the air transport industry
Published in Bijan Vasigh, Ken Fleming, Thomas Tacker, Introduction to Air Transport Economics, 2018
Bijan Vasigh, Ken Fleming, Thomas Tacker
The Delphi method was originally developed by RAND Corporation in the 1950s to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. It is related to historical analogy in that the forecast is largely based on expert opinion. In fact, the name is derived from the Oracle at Delphi, which is said to have been a source of information about communal questions in ancient Greece. Today, the Delphi method collects forecasts and opinions from an independent panel of experts as an iterative process involving feedback through a series of stages or rounds. Each expert provides their analysis and opinion independently, and then a consensus forecast is created based on the analysis provided by each member of the panel. The primary critique of this method is that it is based on apparent consensus (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Moreover, there is no solid way to statistically analyze the results.
Managing evolutionary paths in Sales and Operations Planning: key dimensions and sequences of implementation
Published in International Journal of Production Research, 2018
Pamela Danese, Margherita Molinaro, Pietro Romano
At the beginning of the project, Company C had an advanced S&OP process that could be associated to a three stage of maturity. The main planning processes, formal and well structured, were supported by a good collaboration between the key business functions, especially marketing, supply chain and finance, which every month created a consensus forecast, then approved by senior management. However, despite the application of an advanced model, the company had some integration problems both internal, especially with the sales area that did not actively take part in the cross-functional S&OP team, and external, being the process very self-referential and not paying enough attention to customers. Focusing mainly on these issues, the company then launched a programme of investments and reached, after 18 months, a more advanced stage of maturity (see Table 8).